New polls released this week from the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College and University of New Hampshire Survey Center show presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris holding a commanding lead over Donald Trump in New Hampshire.
The St. Anselm’s poll shows Harris leading Trump 50% to 44%, and the UNH poll shows her at 49% to Trump’s 43%of support with Trump at 43%,, giving Harris a six-point lead in each survey..
The results represent a remarkable turnaround, as a St. Anselm’s poll showed Donald Trump ahead by 2 points shortly after the late June debate between he and President Joe Biden, before Biden decided to end his campaign and endorse Harris.
“Publicly, NH GOP will dismiss this. Privately, campaigns will consider what the fall might be like if Trump doesn’t try to make NH a battleground,” Dante Scala, Associate Professor of Politics at St. Anselm College said in a social media post following the release of the polls.
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New Hampshire hasn’t voted for a Republican for president in 24 years and with polls like this and with the current level of investment by the Trump campaign, it looks like that trend could continue.
The Trump campaign has made minimal investments in New Hampshire, opening just one office in the state while the Democratic coordinated campaign has opened and staffed 16 field offices across the state. To try and make up for their lack of investment in the state, Republicans have relied on events like “Trump Trains,” which involve large numbers of pickup trucks disrupting traffic in small New England towns on the weekends.
New Hampshire Republican leaders have even mocked NH Democrats’ opening of multiple field offices across the state, but Democratic leaders say the campaign infrastructure is an undeniable strength in election contests decided by tight margins.
“Local offices are a crucial part of building community, within a party, with a candidate, with a campaign. I’ve always felt that there was great value in having some place in the local community where volunteers interested in voters, activists can come to visit, participate in democracy,” NHDP Chair Ray Buckley said at a press conference hosted by the Harris campaign earlier this week.
“You saw that in the presidential primary, where New Hampshire people took control and won a historic vote for Vice President Biden. So we’re going to commit to opening up even more offices and hiring more staff.”
